期刊论文

Study on the Influence of Financialization Factors on the Commodity Price Fluctuation in China:An Analysis Based on SVAR Model

中文

Shanghai Jinrong Xueyuan Xuebao

1673-680X

2020

32

3

3-15

10.3969/j.issn.1673-680X.2020.03.001

本校为第一机构

基于我国大宗商品价格波动中日益体现的金融化属性,选取2007—2019年月度同比数据,根据SVAR模型考察各类因素对我国大宗商品价格波动的影响。研究发现:我国宏观经济状况对大宗商品价格波动影响最大,然后是国内需求;金融化因素中依次为国际期货市场、大宗商品自身因素、人民币实际有效汇率、货币供应量、通货膨胀和国际流动性水平。造成这些金融化因素影响程度不同的原因可能是各类金融化因素对我国大宗商品价格传导机制的差异性。基于上述研究发现,提出稳定我国大宗商品价格的几点建议:建立规范高效的国内大宗商品期货市场;加强我国大宗商品价格波动的监测,增强国际大宗商品价格的定价话语权;加...

Based on the financialization that is increasingly reflected in China’s commodity price fluctuation,the authors select the relevant monthly data from2007 to 2019 and use the SVAR model to study the effect of various factors on the commodity price fluctuation in China.The authors find that China’s macroeconomic conditions have the greatest impact on its commodity price fluctuation,followed by the degree of domestic demand;the financialization factors include the international futures market,the commodity’s own factors,the real effective excha...