期刊论文

Non-stationary wind extremes’impact on safety of wind turbines over long term scale

中文

电力科学与技术学报

1673-9140

2018

33

3

10-17

10.3969/j.issn.1673-9140.2018.03.002

国家重点研发计划（2018YFB0904900）；

本校为第一机构

风力发电机根据历史气象观测数据计算确定的多年一遇风速进行设计和选型,如气候模式在其寿命期内发生明显变化,风速极值分布可能有所改变,将对风机安全性造成突出影响.选用黄山、衡山、成山头、海力素和拐子湖等站点近40 a风速数据,利用考虑和不考虑极值风速趋势性变化的平稳与非平稳极值分布模型(GEV)进行多年一遇极值风速计算.分析长时间尺度下气候变化所致多年一遇极值风速的地域性变化规律及其对风电机组安全性的影响.分析发现海力素、拐子湖和成山头极值风速呈非平稳性,50 a一遇最大风速呈下降趋势,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风机安全性有正面影响;黄山极值风速呈非平稳性,长时间尺度上...

Wind turbines are designed based on the wind extremes of a 50-year recurrence interval which are calculated from the historical wind data.However,changes in the wind extremes can influence the safety of wind turbines notably as the climate pattern changes during its life cycle.In this article,the wind speed data in 5 sites from 1973 to 2012 is investigated.The Stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value(GEV)distribution is utilized to calculate wind extremes of a 50-year recurrence interval.The temporal and spatial variation of wind extremes as well as their impacts on the safety o...