期刊论文

Simulation and Prediction of Water Supply and Demand Matching in Water-Deficient Cities: A Case Study of Lanzhou City of Gansu Province

中文

经济地理

1000-8462

2020

40

2

89-96

10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2020.02.010

教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(71903056) 湖南省社会科学基金青年项目(18YBQ075) 湖南省教育厅科学研究一般项目(18C0598)

本校为第一机构

兰州属于严重缺水的西北城市,年均降雨量偏少,地表水资源贫乏,水资源供需矛盾不断加剧。文章采用线性和非线性方程形式对兰州市农业、工业、生态和城乡生活用水需求进行模拟和预测,并在不同的水资源供给方案下得到未来时期内兰州市及各区县的时空匹配缺水量。结果显示:未来兰州市水资源短缺问题较为严重,可预测的缺水量最小值为4.605亿m~3/a,缺水量最大值为15.448亿m~3/a。在未来需水量预测中,农业和生态用水需求呈现为不断上升趋势,工业用水需求呈现为“U”型趋势,城乡生活用水需求呈现为倒“U”型趋势。并且,各区县的水资源空间匹配失衡状况较为严重。

Lanzhou is a city in northwest China with severe water shortage,where is less annual rainfall in average and scarce water resource on surface. In this paper,linear and nonlinear equations are used to simulate and predict the demand for water in Lanzhou city, including agriculture, industry, ecological, urban and rural life, and then obtains the spatialtemporal matching water shortage of Lanzhou city, every district and county in the future under the different water supply schemes. The results show that the shortage of water resources in Lanzhou will be more serious in the future. The predicted...