期刊论文

Export Potential of China's Goods Trade to Countries along the Belt and Road

中文

经济地理

1000-8462

2018

38

9

30-37

10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2018.09.004

湖南省自然科学基金项目(2017JJ3518)

本校为第一机构

利用扩展的引力模型实证分析了中国向“一带一路”沿线61个国家货物出口贸易的贸易潜力。结果表明“一带一路”沿线国的人口数量、中国和沿线国GDP、贸易自由度指数、两国之间的距离及是否使用共同语言等因素对中国向沿线国的货物出口贸易有显著影响。在沿线61个出口市场中,以欧洲各国为主的11个国家属于“潜力再造型”国家,中国对其出口贸易潜力十分有限;以俄罗斯、中东欧及中东地区各国为主的共34个国家属于“潜力开拓型”国家,这些国家仍然有一定的出口潜力待挖掘;以中亚和南亚为主的16个国家属于“潜力巨大型”,这些国家大多是中国货物出口的“小型市场”,还存在很大的潜在市场空间。

This paper uses an extended gravitational model to empirically analyze the potential of China’s exports of goods to 61 countries along the Belt and Road. The results show that the population of the countries along the Belt and Road, GDPs and indices of trade freedom of China and countries along the Belt and Road, distance between China and countries along the Belt and Road, and the use of common language have a significant effect on China’s export trade to countries along the Belt and Road. Among the 61 countries, 11 countries which are mainl...