期刊论文

Prediction of development boom of eco-tourism industry in Sichuan province based on diffusion index model

中文

中南林业科技大学学报

Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

1673-923X

2015

35

3

120-122

10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2015.03.024

国家林业局重大调研项目(ZDWT-2011-8)；

本校为第一机构

运用等权一致扩散指数模型,分析了四川生态旅游发展的市场前景和景气循环周期。结果表明:(1)四川省生态旅游业虽然经历了2008年的短暂低谷期,但从总体上看处于持续增长的态势;(2)2007~2012年四川省生态旅游业经历了"景气-不景气-景气-不景气-景气"的循环过程。短期内,四川生态旅游业会持续当前的景气状态。

The market prospect and boom loop cycle of ecological tourism development in Sichuan province were predicted by using equal-weighted and coincident diffusion index method. The results show that：（1） Though Sichuan province ecological tourism had experienced a short low valley period in 2008, but it was keeping a continuous growing trend on the whole;（2） from 2007 to 2012, the ecological tourism industry in Sichuan province had experienced a cycle of ＂boom → recession → boom → recession → boom＂. The conclusion is that in the short term...